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the future of trade

TRADE, TECHNOLOGY AND MARKETS IN TRANSITION

Unveiling Trends Shaping the Precious Metals Market

As central banks and governments reassess their economic strategies, precious metals—particularly gold—have become essential for navigating uncertainty. This report offers a comprehensive analysis of the forces driving the market, providing industry stakeholders with the insights needed to stay ahead.

Against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical risks, trade realignments, and technological advancements, this edition highlights the transformation of the precious metals industry. With contributions from global experts, it addresses the current state of the market, including record prices, the rise of new trading hubs, and the evolving role of technology in driving transparency and compliance.

Critical Insights into Precious
Metals Trade

01
Record Prices Amid Global Uncertainty
02
Supply and Demand Shifts to the East
03
Transparency and Compliance: Making Artisans Mainstream
04
Technology Transforming the Industry
05
New Market Hubs Emerge
 
 

01
The Global Gold Surge: Prices and Beyond

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Amidst a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, gold has emerged as a crucial asset for governments and investors seeking stability. Conflicts and sanctions have heightened fears of financial instability, pushing central banks worldwide to increase their gold reserves. This chapter delves into the rise in gold prices, analysing the underlying causes, from inflation fears to concerns over the US dollar’s dominance. Private investors, particularly in emerging markets, are following suit, shifting away from traditional investments to accumulate physical gold.

 
 

02
Eastward Shift: The Rise of New Trading Hubs

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As the global economic power axis shifts, new trading hubs emerge with Dubai, Shanghai, and Singapore at the forefront. Historically, London and Geneva controlled much of the global precious metals trade, but with rising consumption in Asia, the East is increasingly driving both demand and supply. This chapter highlights how these hubs capitalise on their strategic locations and robust infrastructure, making it easier for investors and traders to access the global gold and silver markets.

 
 

03
Bringing Transparency to Artisanal Mining

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The artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector, which employs over 20 million people globally, has historically been opaque. However, blockchain and other technologies offer hope for a more transparent and sustainable future. This chapter delves into how these innovations are being used to track gold from its source, ensuring that ethical standards are maintained across the entire supply chain. 

 
 

04
Technology — From Mining by Machine to Mobile Trading

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In the precious metals industry, technology is proving to be a game-changer. This chapter explores how artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain are revolutionising mining, refining, and trading. AI is now being used to identify new deposits of precious metals, optimising exploration efforts while reducing costs. Meanwhile, blockchain enhances transparency in the supply chain, ensuring that gold can be tracked from mine to market with unprecedented accuracy. These technologies are not only making the industry more efficient but are also helping it meet the growing demands for sustainability and compliance with environmental standards.



 
 

05
New Gold and Silver Market Structures

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As demand for gold and silver shifts towards Asia, cities like Dubai, Singapore, and Shanghai are emerging as major refining and trading hubs, disrupting the traditional dominance of London and Geneva. This chapter examines how these cities position themselves at the centre of global trade in precious metals by offering better regulatory environments, advanced technological infrastructure, and strategic trading opportunities. As these hubs grow in prominence, they are also shaping the future of how gold and silver are traded, refined, and stored globally, providing new opportunities for investors and governments alike.

Gold accounts for nearly 30% of the UAE’s non-oil exports

Dubai, a key global player in the gold market, has made considerable strides in enhancing transparency, governance and regulatory oversight of the gold trade. Under the UAE Ministry of Economy’s Good Delivery Standard, the UAE ensures a robust and independent governance to enhance responsible sourcing practices in line with OECD standards. This move has solidified Dubai’s position as a gold hub, boosting confidence and transparency for stakeholders in the operating environment.

UAE Good Delivery and Risk-Based Regulations

In 2021, the UAE introduced the UAE Good Delivery (UAEGD) standard, a certification that ensures refiners and traders meet stringent international requirements. This standard applies to gold traded on key platforms such as the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) and the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX). Additionally, risk-based due diligence regulations were implemented to prevent smuggling and ensure ethical sourcing, following OECD guidelines.

Expert Insights on Precious
Metals Trade

One of the challenges for the gold market is that a number of investors and consumers are essentially being put off because there are questions around integrity, about the way in which gold is produced, about who's been involved in the supply chain, and, frankly, sometimes also about lack of access to data about the gold market.

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Terry Heymann, Chief Financial Officer of the World Gold Council

There has been a shift — a seismic shift — away from the dollar for central banks. The common theme is de-dollarisation or at least dollar diversification by those countries that may come in the sights of the US in terms of sanctions.

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Jeffrey Rhodes, Founder, Rhodes Precious Metals

Over the past two decades, more than 70% of the physical gold market has shifted to Asia, with a growing number of participants from China, India, and Southeast Asia.

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Albert Cheng, CEO, Singapore Bullion Market Association

ASGM will continue to grow as long as it is a livelihood solution in rural areas with few livelihood options.

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Patrick Schein, Gold by Gold and Chairman, Alliance for Responsible Mining

Key Recommendations for Precious Metals Stakeholders

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Improve Transparency and Gold Provenance

Governments, exchanges, and refineries must enhance measures to make the provenance of gold more transparent. Countries should follow the UAE's example by transferring oversight of physical precious metals refining and trading to government bodies, ensuring stricter regulation and accountability across the supply chain.

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Formalise Artisanal Mining with Finance and Training

Rather than banning artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM), it should be supported through targeted finance, training, and access to formal markets to improve safety and environmental standards. Government intervention is needed to promote development in gold-producing countries and eliminate smuggling incentives, leveraging technology to ensure payments in hard currency from international buyers reach ASGM producers.

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Promote Digital Innovation in Emerging Markets

Gold trading products must be further innovated to attract younger investors and increase liquidity. Fintechs in developing markets should create digital products, allowing small-scale investors to invest in locally held gold. This will expand gold investment in emerging markets and increase participation, particularly for the unbanked.

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Facilitate Trade Liberalisation for Precious Metals

Tariffs and customs barriers hindering the free movement of gold should be lowered to combat smuggling, enhance liquidity, and improve price discovery. Expanding trade agreements like the UAE-India CEPA is crucial. Without such agreements, bilateral deals that reduce tariffs on precious metals should be pursued to ensure smoother, more transparent trade.

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Invest in AI and Technology for Mining

Miners must invest in AI and technology to reduce costs and meet global demand without inflating production costs. AI is vital for identifying new deposits and optimising mining techniques. These technologies should be transferred to ASGM to phase out mercury use in mining, which will improve ESG standards and attract responsible investors.

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Establish Global Standards for Blockchain Solutions

Unified global standards for digital gold products and blockchain-based tracking systems are essential for a transparent and efficient gold market. Collaboration is key to enabling transparent spot gold pricing, reducing reliance on derivative products, and eliminating inconsistencies across markets.

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