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Rebuilding Through Rupture

The Architecture of Global Trade is Being Rebuilt Through Rupture

The Future of Trade 2026 is the sixth edition of DMCC's biennial flagship report on the changing nature of global commerce.

As the old architecture gives way, the 2026 edition is defined by rupture and what comes next in global trade.

The Four Forces Shaping the Future of Global Trade

The certainties that underpinned global trade are gone. What takes their place will define the decade ahead

Explore the Chapters 

A World Trade Disorder

The rules-based trading system that governed global commerce is no longer the primary frame of reference for businesses making decisions about where to source, invest and sell.

What do businesses do when the rulebook disappears? Chapter 1 explores the forces that dismantled world trade and what businesses and governments must now operate within.

Top 5 actions businesses are taking in response to geopolitical risk

Source: DMCC Future of Trade Survey, 2026

% of respondents selecting each option

98%
of businesses cite geopolitical tensions as a major or moderate factor reshaping trade flows over the next 1-3 years.

The New Trade Map

Geopolitical ruptures have not stopped trade, but have fundamentally redirected it. The WTO forecasts merchandise export growth of 1.9% in 2026, recovering to 2.6% in 2027, but strip out AI-related goods, and the underlying picture is considerably weaker. The real story is not the headline number but where growth is happening and why.

Chapter 2 maps the new trade flows, identifies which hubs are capturing redirected volumes, and presents the latest DMCC Commodity Trade Index to reveal where the genuine opportunity lies.

Trade volume growth, 2022–2027

Source: IMF, 2026a

AI goods now represent
15%
of global trade by volume but drove 43% of its growth in the first half of 2025.

The Technology Divide

The gap between the most and least digitalised sectors is wide. Digital infrastructure leads at the top of the DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index 2026. Production sits at the bottom, though accelerating AI and cloud adoption drove its biggest single-year improvement on record.

Chapter 3 quantifies the divide through the DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index, and examines the financial infrastructure and data barriers reshaping trade alongside it.

DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index by component, 2026 vs 2024

Source: Eurostat, OECD Cebr analysis

AI-related trade reached
$1.92 TRILLION
in the first half of 2025, up more than 20% year-on-year.

The Race for Industrial Supremacy

The energy transition has been reframed. What began as a climate imperative is now a race for industrial supremacy, fought over clean tech inputs, EV factories, grid infrastructure and critical minerals supply chains. Low-carbon energy investment hit a record $2.3 trillion globally in 2025, up 8%, and is projected to reach $2.9 trillion over the next five years.

Chapter 4 examines who is winning that contest, who is losing, and what it means for trade.

Total mineral demand for clean energy technologies, 2010-2040

Source: IEA, 2021b

In 2025, China led clean energy investments:
1) CHINA: $800 BILLION
2) EU: $455 BILLION
3) UNITED STATES: $378 BILLION

Top 5 actions businesses are taking in response to geopolitical risk

Source: DMCC Future of Trade Survey, 2026

% of respondents selecting each option

Trade volume growth, 2022–2027

Source: IMF, 2026a

DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index by component, 2026 vs 2024

Source: Eurostat, OECD Cebr analysis

Total mineral demand for clean energy technologies, 2010-2040

Source: IEA, 2021b

DMCC 2026 Commodity Trade and Industry Digitalisation Indexes

DMCC Commodity Trade Index 2026

Tariffs, conflict, and fracturing supply chains are redrawing the map of global commodity trade. The hubs that held their ground two years ago are not necessarily the ones holding it now.

For the first time, the DMCC Commodity Trade Index 2026 uses nowcasting data to evaluate the impact of real-time disruptions, including the Strait of Hormuz closure and escalating global tariffs, ranking the world's ten most significant commodity trade hubs across location, commodity endowment, and institutional strength to reveal who is gaining, who is slipping, and why it matters.

First, second and biggest mover: the United States, the UAE and the Netherlands lead the Index Score 2026 rankings

Country Index Score 2026
United States 57%
United Arab Emirates 47%
Netherlands 47%
Switzerland 44%
Hong Kong SAR, China 43%

AI adoption varies significantly across industries. The pattern is consistent whether in Europe or the United States

Source: Eurostat, OECD, Cebr analysis

Industry Digitalisation Index

The DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index 2026 tracks digitalisation progress across sectors and four core business functions. The variation across industries is striking. The sectors furthest behind are among the largest employers in the global economy.

Expert Perspectives
on Global Trade

Chapter 1: A World Trade Disorder

“Something like 80% of global trade is carried by sea, and any threats to freedom of navigation can have a massive range of second, third order impacts from rising insurance premiums, rising commodity prices, disruption to energy, food commodity flows.”

Miha Hribernik
Chief Asia Geopolitical Strategist, Deutsche Bank
img-expert-Miha-Hribernik
Chapter 2: New Trade Map

“The level of trust that characterised global trade between 1980 and sometime into the new millennium is not, in general, going to prevail. So every country, regardless of which alliance they are part of, and whether they are part of multiple alliances, would prefer to err on the side of a 'just in case' approach.”

Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran
Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India
img-expert-Anantha-Nageswaran
Chapter 3: The Technology Divide

“If you're a bank and you want to tokenise your deposits because it enables faster settlement, it can reduce your operations cost. You don't care what the price of Bitcoin is. You don't care where the broader market cap is, you're just focused on creating efficiencies for your business.”

Jim Ferraioli
Director of Crypto Research and Strategy, Charles Schwab
img-expert-Jim Ferraioli
Chapter 4: Clean Energy: The Race for Industrial Supremacy

“We'll see the Saudis build even more infrastructure to avoid the Strait. And Iraq will build more infrastructure. The UAE will build more infrastructure. Everyone will start building more infrastructure to move things away from the Strait, which means that trade flows will start to change again.”

Michelle Brouhard
Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk, Kpler
img-expert-Michelle-Brouhard
img-expert-Miha-Hribernik
img-expert-Anantha-Nageswaran
img-expert-Jim Ferraioli
img-expert-Michelle-Brouhard

Slideshare

View the 2026 report's key findings in the executive summary.

2026 Future of Trade Report

Your in-depth view into the transformative forces behind global trade.

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Snapshot Report

The key insights of our Future of Trade report.

Download Your Future of Trade 2026 Report

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